Keaton MitchellorMarShawn Lloyd?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean MarShawn Lloyd
MarShawn Lloyd outscores Keaton Mitchell in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keaton Mitchell comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean MarShawn Lloyd, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. MarShawn Lloyd projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: MarShawn Lloyd faces the Chicago Bears (8% fewer than average to RBs), Keaton Mitchell faces the Denver Broncos (8% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 9.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | MarShawn LloydRB, GB, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 6.5 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| Rank this week | RB40 | RB39 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.6 | 5.4 |
| Last season per game | 3.9 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 37% | 55% |
| Trade value | — | — |