Keaton MitchellorTyrone Tracy Jr.?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. outscores Keaton Mitchell in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keaton Mitchell comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Tyrone Tracy Jr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyrone Tracy Jr. projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (6% more than average to RBs); Keaton Mitchell faces the Denver Broncos (8% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 10.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 6.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Rank this week | RB40 | RB38 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.6 | -0.1 |
| Last season per game | 3.9 | 9.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 37% | 18% |
| Trade value | — | — |