Keaton MitchellorSean Tucker?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Keaton Mitchell
Keaton Mitchell outscores Sean Tucker in 58% of simulations.
Sean Tucker still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Keaton Mitchell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Sean Tucker projects 0.7 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Sean Tucker has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (11% more than average to RBs); Keaton Mitchell faces the Denver Broncos (8% fewer than average to RBs). Keaton Mitchell still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 3.3
- Ceiling
- 14.8
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 67%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Sean TuckerRB, TB, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| Rank this week | RB40 | RB37 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.6 | 7.0 |
| Last season per game | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 37% | 5% |
| Trade value | — | — |