Michael CarterorSeth McGowan?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Michael Carter
Michael Carter outscores Seth McGowan in 55% of simulations.
Seth McGowan still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Michael Carter is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Carter projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Seth McGowan has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to RBs); Michael Carter faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Michael Carter still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Seth McGowan is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 9.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 70%
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 3.7
- Ceiling
- 9.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 72%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Seth McGowanRB, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| PPR projection | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| Standard projection | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Rank this week | RB39 | RB40 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.3 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |