Kaelon BlackorSeth McGowan?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black outscores Seth McGowan in 58% of simulations.
Seth McGowan still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Kaelon Black is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kaelon Black projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Kaelon Black faces the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs), Seth McGowan faces the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 3.7
- Ceiling
- 9.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 72%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Seth McGowanRB, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 5.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB40 |
| Matchup | at DAL | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Last season per game | — | — |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |