Dylan SampsonorSeth McGowan?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Dylan Sampson
Dylan Sampson outscores Seth McGowan in 60% of simulations.
Seth McGowan still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Dylan Sampson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dylan Sampson projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Seth McGowan has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to RBs); Dylan Sampson faces the Houston Texans (5% fewer than average to RBs). Dylan Sampson still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Dylan Sampson wins 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.8
- Ceiling
- 11.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 60%
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 3.7
- Ceiling
- 9.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 72%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dylan SampsonRB, CLE, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Seth McGowanRB, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| PPR projection | 7.2 | 5.0 |
| Standard projection | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Rank this week | RB37 | RB40 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.3 | 3.4 |
| Last season per game | 4.7 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 64% | 31% |
| Trade value | — | — |