Justice HillorMichael Carter?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Justice Hill
Justice Hill outscores Michael Carter in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Carter comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Justice Hill, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Justice Hill projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Justice Hill has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs); Michael Carter faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 9.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 70%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Justice HillRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.2 | 5.0 |
| PPR projection | 7.4 | 6.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| Rank this week | RB35 | RB39 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Last season per game | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | — |