Braelon AllenorTyjae Spears?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Braelon Allen
Braelon Allen outscores Tyjae Spears in 57% of simulations.
Tyjae Spears still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Braelon Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Braelon Allen projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Tyjae Spears has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (4% more than average to RBs); Braelon Allen faces the New England Patriots (11% fewer than average to RBs). Braelon Allen still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Tyjae Spears is the pick at 50%; in Standard leagues, Braelon Allen wins 67%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 11.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 60%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 10.1
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 67%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Braelon AllenRB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| PPR projection | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.5 | 3.6 |
| Rank this week | RB32 | RB36 |
| Matchup | at NE | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | 3.7 |
| Last season per game | 3.6 | 6.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 54% |
| Trade value | — | — |