Brian RobinsonorTyler Allgeier?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Tyler Allgeier

Tyler Allgeier outscores Brian Robinson in 54% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Brian Robinson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Tyler Allgeier, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyler Allgeier projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Allgeier has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Brian Robinson faces the New Orleans Saints (5% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Brian Robinson is the pick at 51%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Brian Robinson
Floor
1.5
Median
4.7
Ceiling
10.8
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
65%
Tyler Allgeier
Floor
1.7
Median
5.2
Ceiling
11.9
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
57%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBrian RobinsonRB, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ETTyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection5.66.2
PPR projection5.97.1
Standard projection5.35.2
Rank this weekRB39RB37
Matchupat NOat NYG
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.34.6
Last season per game3.46.8
Snap share, last game27%36%
Trade value——