Alvin KamaraorBrian Robinson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Brian Robinson in 56% of simulations.
Brian Robinson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Alvin Kamara is the better bet, not a sure thing. Alvin Kamara projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Brian Robinson has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (5% more than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Alvin Kamara still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Alvin Kamara wins 62%; in Standard leagues, Brian Robinson is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 10.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 65%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Brian RobinsonRB, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| PPR projection | 7.4 | 5.9 |
| Standard projection | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB39 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.7 | 7.3 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 3.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 32% | 27% |
| Trade value | — | — |