Bam KnightorMichael Carter?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Michael Carter
Michael Carter outscores Bam Knight in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bam Knight comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Michael Carter, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Bam Knight projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Bam Knight has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Michael Carter faces the Baltimore Ravens (1% more than average to RBs). Michael Carter still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Bam Knight is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 11.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 6.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Rank this week | RB34 | RB38 |
| Matchup | at NYG | at BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | — |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 6% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |