Bam KnightorJacory Croskey-Merritt?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Jacory Croskey-Merritt outscores Bam Knight in 56% of simulations.
Bam Knight still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jacory Croskey-Merritt projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bam Knight has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Jacory Croskey-Merritt faces the Indianapolis Colts (3% more than average to RBs). Jacory Croskey-Merritt still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.2
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 15.9
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| PPR projection | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.5 | 7.3 |
| Rank this week | RB36 | RB32 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | 7.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 6% | 57% |
| Trade value | — | — |