Michael CarterorTyler Allgeier?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Tyler Allgeier
Tyler Allgeier outscores Michael Carter in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Carter comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Tyler Allgeier, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyler Allgeier projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Allgeier has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Michael Carter faces the Baltimore Ravens (1% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 11.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| Rank this week | RB38 | RB35 |
| Matchup | at BAL | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 4.6 |
| Last season per game | 6.3 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | — | 36% |
| Trade value | — | — |