Jacory Croskey-MerrittorTyler Allgeier?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Jacory Croskey-Merritt outscores Tyler Allgeier in 56% of simulations.
Tyler Allgeier still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jacory Croskey-Merritt projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Allgeier has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Jacory Croskey-Merritt faces the Indianapolis Colts (3% more than average to RBs). Jacory Croskey-Merritt still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 16.1
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Tyler AllgeierRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 5.6 |
| Rank this week | RB36 | RB39 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.4 | 4.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.0 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 57% | 36% |
| Trade value | — | — |