Kenny GainwellorTyrone Tracy Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Kenny Gainwell
Kenny Gainwell outscores Tyrone Tracy Jr. in 58% of simulations.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Kenny Gainwell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kenny Gainwell projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Kenny Gainwell faces the Green Bay Packers (12% more than average to RBs), Tyrone Tracy Jr. faces the Arizona Cardinals (12% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 10.2 | 7.3 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 5.6 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB32 |
| Matchup | vs GB | vs ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| Last season per game | 10.9 | 9.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 46% | 2% |
| Trade value | — | — |