Kenny GainwellorTony Pollard?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard outscores Kenny Gainwell in 60% of simulations.
Kenny Gainwell still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Tony Pollard is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tony Pollard projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Kenny Gainwell has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (12% more than average to RBs); Tony Pollard faces the Baltimore Ravens (1% more than average to RBs). Tony Pollard still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Tony Pollard wins 65%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 16.1
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | RB30 | RB26 |
| Matchup | vs GB | at BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 46% | 53% |
| Trade value | — | — |