Chris Rodriguez Jr.orEmanuel Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Emanuel Wilson in 58% of simulations.
Emanuel Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Emanuel Wilson projects 0.7 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Philadelphia Eagles (6% more than average to RBs), Emanuel Wilson faces the San Francisco 49ers (8% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 19.1
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 8.3 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB31 | RB29 |
| Matchup | vs PHI | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.7 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 7.5 | 5.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 60% |
| Trade value | — | — |