David MontgomeryorOllie Gordon II?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start David Montgomery
David Montgomery outscores Ollie Gordon II in 60% of simulations.
Ollie Gordon II still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so David Montgomery is the better bet, not a sure thing. David Montgomery projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Ollie Gordon II has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (17% more than average to RBs); David Montgomery faces the Tennessee Titans (1% fewer than average to RBs). David Montgomery still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ollie Gordon IIRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.7 | 7.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 6.4 |
| Rank this week | RB25 | RB38 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 3.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |