David MontgomeryorOmarion Hampton?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Omarion Hampton
Omarion Hampton outscores David Montgomery in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Omarion Hampton, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. David Montgomery projects 0.7 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. David Montgomery has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs); Omarion Hampton faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to RBs). Omarion Hampton still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Omarion HamptonRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 11.2 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | RB19 | RB23 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.2 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 13.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 63% | 42% |
| Trade value | 5 | 17 |