David MontgomeryorOmarion Hampton?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Omarion Hampton

Omarion Hampton outscores David Montgomery in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Omarion Hampton, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. David Montgomery projects 0.7 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. David Montgomery has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs); Omarion Hampton faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to RBs). Omarion Hampton still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

David Montgomery
Floor
2.9
Median
9.1
Ceiling
21.2
Big game (20+):
13%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Omarion Hampton
Floor
4.0
Median
9.1
Ceiling
17.6
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
24%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDavid MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETOmarion HamptonRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection10.910.2
PPR projection11.911.2
Standard projection10.09.2
Rank this weekRB19RB23
Matchupvs DALat SEA
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game12.210.1
Last season per game9.113.3
Snap share, last game63%42%
Trade value517