Saquon BarkleyorWoody Marks?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley outscores Woody Marks in 59% of simulations.
Woody Marks still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Saquon Barkley is the better bet, not a sure thing. Saquon Barkley projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Woody Marks has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Saquon Barkley still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 8.5
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 15.9
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Woody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB32 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 13.4 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 72% | 37% |
| Trade value | 7 | — |