Bam KnightorWoody Marks?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Woody Marks
Woody Marks outscores Bam Knight in 59% of simulations.
Bam Knight still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Woody Marks is the better bet, not a sure thing. Woody Marks projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Woody Marks faces the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs), Bam Knight faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Woody MarksRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | RB32 | RB28 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.4 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 6% | 37% |
| Trade value | — | — |