Ashton JeantyorBucky Irving?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving outscores Ashton Jeanty in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ashton Jeanty comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Bucky Irving, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 11.4
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 20.2
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Bucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.0 | 12.5 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 14.4 |
| Standard projection | 11.3 | 10.7 |
| Rank this week | RB11 | RB13 |
| Matchup | vs KC | vs GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 11.5 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 52% |
| Trade value | 31 | 17 |