Ashton JeantyorBucky Irving?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving outscores Ashton Jeanty in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Ashton Jeanty comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Bucky Irving, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ashton Jeanty projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs); Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Ashton Jeanty
Floor
4.2
Median
11.4
Ceiling
24.6
Big game (20+):
18%
Dud (under 6):
19%
Bucky Irving
Floor
6.0
Median
11.5
Ceiling
20.2
Big game (20+):
10%
Dud (under 6):
10%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAshton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETBucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection13.012.5
PPR projection14.714.4
Standard projection11.310.7
Rank this weekRB11RB13
Matchupvs KCvs GB
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game16.311.5
Last season per game12.812.3
Snap share, last game84%52%
Trade value3117