Alvin KamaraorTyrone Tracy Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara outscores Tyrone Tracy Jr. in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tyrone Tracy Jr. comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Alvin Kamara, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyrone Tracy Jr. projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (12% more than average to RBs); Alvin Kamara faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Alvin Kamara still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alvin KamaraRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Rank this week | RB39 | RB36 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | vs ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.7 | -0.1 |
| Last season per game | 7.7 | 9.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 32% | 2% |
| Trade value | — | — |