Brady RussellorDameon Pierce?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce outscores Brady Russell in 57% of simulations.
Brady Russell still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Dameon Pierce is the better bet, not a sure thing. Both project 0.6 half-PPR points in Week 5. Brady Russell has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (7% more than average to RBs); Dameon Pierce faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (22% fewer than average to RBs). Dameon Pierce still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Dameon Pierce wins 51%; in Standard leagues, Dameon Pierce wins 63%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 0.4
- Ceiling
- 1.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.5
- Ceiling
- 1.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brady RussellRB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Dameon PierceRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| PPR projection | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Standard projection | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Rank this week | RB90 | RB89 |
| Matchup | vs SF | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.8 | — |
| Last season per game | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 22% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |