Brian Thomas Jr.orLadd McConkey?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. outscores Ladd McConkey in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ladd McConkey comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Brian Thomas Jr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Brian Thomas Jr. has the better matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (6% fewer than average to WRs); Ladd McConkey faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs). Ladd McConkey is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 51%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 13.6
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 53%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| PPR projection | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Standard projection | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Rank this week | WR44 | WR46 |
| Matchup | vs PHI | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 5.3 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | 9.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 34% |
| Trade value | — | — |