Carnell TateorDK Metcalf?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores Carnell Tate in 56% of simulations.
Carnell Tate still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so DK Metcalf is the better bet, not a sure thing. DK Metcalf projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. DK Metcalf has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); Carnell Tate faces the Houston Texans (2% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, DK Metcalf wins 61%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 18.3
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 13.1 |
| Standard projection | 6.9 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | WR20 | WR16 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| Last season per game | — | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 97% |
| Trade value | 11 | 13 |