Chase BrownorDavid Montgomery?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores David Montgomery in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Chase Brown, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Chase Brown projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. David Montgomery has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.1
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.3 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Rank this week | RB17 | RB19 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 12.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 63% |
| Trade value | 25 | 5 |