David MontgomeryorDe'Von Achane?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start De'Von Achane
De'Von Achane outscores David Montgomery in 57% of simulations.
David Montgomery still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so De'Von Achane is the better bet, not a sure thing. De'Von Achane projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. David Montgomery has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (15% more than average to RBs); De'Von Achane faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to RBs). De'Von Achane still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 9.1
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 10.9
- Ceiling
- 18.3
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | De'Von AchaneRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 11.4 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 12.9 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Rank this week | RB19 | RB16 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.2 | 7.0 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 18.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 63% | 5% |
| Trade value | 5 | 24 |