Chris OlaveorChristian McCaffrey?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores Chris Olave in 58% of simulations.
Chris Olave still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Chris Olave has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (13% more than average to WRs); Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (7% fewer than average to RBs). Christian McCaffrey still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 53%; in Standard leagues, Christian McCaffrey wins 63%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 16.1
- Ceiling
- 29.0
- Big game (20+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
- Floor
- 9.9
- Median
- 18.1
- Ceiling
- 29.5
- Big game (20+):
- 40%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Chris OlaveWR, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.2 | 18.9 |
| PPR projection | 21.2 | 21.4 |
| Standard projection | 13.1 | 16.4 |
| Rank this week | WR2 | RB5 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.0 | 17.2 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 21.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 83% |
| Trade value | 48 | 70 |