Dameon PierceorVelus Jones Jr.?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Dameon Pierce
Dameon Pierce outscores Velus Jones Jr. in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Velus Jones Jr. comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Dameon Pierce, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Velus Jones Jr. projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Velus Jones Jr. has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (7% more than average to RBs); Dameon Pierce faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (22% fewer than average to RBs). Dameon Pierce still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.5
- Ceiling
- 1.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 0.4
- Ceiling
- 1.8
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dameon PierceRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Velus Jones Jr.RB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| PPR projection | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Standard projection | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Rank this week | RB89 | RB87 |
| Matchup | at JAX | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | — |
| Last season per game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Snap share, last game | — | — |
| Trade value | — | — |