Dare OgunbowaleorLan Larison?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Lan Larison
Lan Larison outscores Dare Ogunbowale in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dare Ogunbowale comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Lan Larison, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dare Ogunbowale projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Dare Ogunbowale has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (average to RBs); Lan Larison faces the Detroit Lions (15% fewer than average to RBs). Lan Larison still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.6
- Ceiling
- 2.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 99%
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 0.7
- Ceiling
- 1.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dare OgunbowaleRB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Lan LarisonRB, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| PPR projection | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Standard projection | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Rank this week | RB65 | RB72 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Last season per game | 1.4 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 11% | 22% |
| Trade value | — | — |