Keaton MitchellorMichael Carter?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Michael Carter
Michael Carter outscores Keaton Mitchell in 55% of simulations.
Keaton Mitchell still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Michael Carter is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Carter projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Michael Carter faces the Houston Texans (13% fewer than average to RBs), Keaton Mitchell faces the Denver Broncos (8% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 10.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.1 | 5.8 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 7.0 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Rank this week | RB39 | RB36 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.6 | — |
| Last season per game | 3.9 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 37% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |