Davis AllenorNoah Gray?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Davis Allen
Davis Allen outscores Noah Gray in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Noah Gray comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Davis Allen, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Davis Allen projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Davis Allen has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (22% more than average to TEs); Noah Gray faces the Atlanta Falcons (16% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 3.1
- Ceiling
- 9.5
- Big game (15+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 5):
- 69%
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.6
- Ceiling
- 6.5
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 80%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Davis AllenTE, LAR, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Noah GrayTE, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| PPR projection | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Standard projection | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| Rank this week | TE34 | TE42 |
| Matchup | at ARI | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Last season per game | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 62% |
| Trade value | — | — |