Drew LockorJustin Fields?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drew Lock
Drew Lock outscores Justin Fields in 61% of simulations.
Justin Fields still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Drew Lock is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drew Lock projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Drew Lock has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (12% more than average to QBs); Justin Fields faces the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 0.8
- Ceiling
- 1.2
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 0.6
- Ceiling
- 1.2
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drew LockQB, SEA, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Justin FieldsQB, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| PPR projection | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Standard projection | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB27 |
| Matchup | at LV | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.6 | -2.1 |
| Last season per game | 0.0 | 15.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 8% |
| Trade value | — | — |