Cam WardorGardner Minshew?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Cam Ward
Cam Ward outscores Gardner Minshew in 94% of simulations.
Gardner Minshew comes out ahead in the other 6%. Cam Ward projects 7.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Gardner Minshew has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Rams (5% fewer than average to QBs); Cam Ward faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (13% fewer than average to QBs). Cam Ward still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 61%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 2.9
- Ceiling
- 6.2
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Cam WardQB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Gardner MinshewQB, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 3.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.2 | 3.3 |
| Standard projection | 11.2 | 3.3 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB23 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.6 | 13.3 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | -0.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |