Gardner MinsheworMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. outscores Gardner Minshew in 95% of simulations.
Gardner Minshew comes out ahead in the other 5%. Michael Penix Jr. projects 8.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Gardner Minshew has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Rams (5% fewer than average to QBs); Michael Penix Jr. faces the Kansas City Chiefs (16% fewer than average to QBs). Michael Penix Jr. still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 2.9
- Ceiling
- 6.2
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 10.8
- Ceiling
- 19.9
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 58%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Gardner MinshewQB, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 3.3 | 11.9 |
| PPR projection | 3.3 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 3.3 | 11.9 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB21 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | vs KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.3 | 13.7 |
| Last season per game | -0.1 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |