Gardner MinsheworJustin Fields?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Gardner Minshew
Gardner Minshew outscores Justin Fields in 96% of simulations.
Justin Fields comes out ahead in the other 4%. Gardner Minshew projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Justin Fields has the better matchup against the New York Jets (16% more than average to QBs); Gardner Minshew faces the Seattle Seahawks (24% fewer than average to QBs). Gardner Minshew still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 2.4
- Ceiling
- 3.7
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 0.8
- Ceiling
- 1.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Gardner MinshewQB, ARI, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin FieldsQB, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| PPR projection | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Standard projection | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Rank this week | QB25 | QB27 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.5 | — |
| Last season per game | -0.1 | 15.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 42% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |