George PickensorTerry McLaurin?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Start George Pickens

George Pickens outscores Terry McLaurin in 56% of simulations.

Terry McLaurin still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so George Pickens is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Pickens projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Terry McLaurin has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); George Pickens faces the Houston Texans (4% fewer than average to WRs). George Pickens still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

George Pickens
Floor
3.9
Median
10.0
Ceiling
20.1
Big game (20+):
10%
Dud (under 6):
23%
Terry McLaurin
Floor
3.6
Median
8.9
Ceiling
17.5
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
27%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatGeorge PickensWR, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTerry McLaurinWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection11.210.2
PPR projection13.912.2
Standard projection8.58.2
Rank this weekWR16WR20
Matchupat HOUvs IND
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.78.4
Last season per game14.49.5
Snap share, last game85%75%
Trade value194