George PickensorTerry McLaurin?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start George Pickens
George Pickens outscores Terry McLaurin in 56% of simulations.
Terry McLaurin still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so George Pickens is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Pickens projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Terry McLaurin has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); George Pickens faces the Houston Texans (4% fewer than average to WRs). George Pickens still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 20.1
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 17.5
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George PickensWR, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Terry McLaurinWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.9 | 12.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 8.2 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR20 |
| Matchup | at HOU | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.7 | 8.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.4 | 9.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 75% |
| Trade value | 19 | 4 |