Jacory Croskey-MerrittorSaquon Barkley?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley outscores Jacory Croskey-Merritt in 56% of simulations.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Saquon Barkley is the better bet, not a sure thing. Saquon Barkley projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has the better matchup against the New York Giants (13% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Saquon Barkley still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.3
- Ceiling
- 16.5
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 14.6
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB26 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.0 | 5.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.0 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 45% | 7% |
| Trade value | — | 5 |