Justin HerbertorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 57% of simulations.
Michael Penix Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Justin Herbert is the better bet, not a sure thing. Justin Herbert projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs); Justin Herbert faces the Seattle Seahawks (18% fewer than average to QBs). Justin Herbert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 21.5
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 20.7
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.8 | 12.7 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 12.7 |
| Standard projection | 13.8 | 12.7 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB23 |
| Matchup | at SEA | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |