Ashton JeantyorBrock Bowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or tight end.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Brock Bowers in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Brock Bowers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Brock Bowers projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Ashton Jeanty faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs), Brock Bowers faces the Kansas City Chiefs (14% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.2
- Median
- 11.4
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 24.9
- Big game (15+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 5):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Brock BowersTE, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.0 | 13.4 |
| PPR projection | 14.7 | 16.4 |
| Standard projection | 11.3 | 10.5 |
| Rank this week | RB11 | TE3 |
| Matchup | vs KC | vs KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 22.6 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 79% |
| Trade value | 31 | 37 |