Brian Thomas Jr.orKC Concepcion?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean KC Concepcion
KC Concepcion outscores Brian Thomas Jr. in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Brian Thomas Jr. comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean KC Concepcion, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. KC Concepcion projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. KC Concepcion has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (14% more than average to WRs); Brian Thomas Jr. faces the Houston Texans (1% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, KC Concepcion wins 57%; in Standard leagues, Brian Thomas Jr. is the pick at 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 10.9
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 57%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 56%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET | KC ConcepcionWR, CLE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Rank this week | WR45 | WR42 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | vs BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 16% |
| Trade value | — | — |