Case KeenumorGeno Smith?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Case Keenum in 99% of simulations.
Case Keenum comes out ahead in the other 1%. Geno Smith projects 11.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Case Keenum has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (5% more than average to QBs); Geno Smith faces the New England Patriots (12% fewer than average to QBs). Geno Smith still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 0.6
- Ceiling
- 0.9
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 10.7
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 58%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Case KeenumQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.6 | 11.8 |
| PPR projection | 0.6 | 11.8 |
| Standard projection | 0.6 | 11.8 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at ATL | at NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.6 | 13.9 |
| Last season per game | — | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 33% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |