Chase BrownorTreVeyon Henderson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chase Brown
Chase Brown outscores TreVeyon Henderson in 57% of simulations.
TreVeyon Henderson still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Chase Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chase Brown projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. TreVeyon Henderson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (16% more than average to RBs); Chase Brown faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Chase Brown still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.1
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 21.4
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.3 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 11.7 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| Rank this week | RB17 | RB20 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 11.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 37% |
| Trade value | 25 | 5 |