Dare OgunbowaleorHunter Luepke?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Hunter Luepke
Hunter Luepke outscores Dare Ogunbowale in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dare Ogunbowale comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Hunter Luepke, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 1.5 half-PPR points in Week 4. Dare Ogunbowale has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (16% more than average to RBs); Hunter Luepke faces the Houston Texans (18% fewer than average to RBs). Hunter Luepke still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 3.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 97%
- Floor
- 0.2
- Median
- 1.1
- Ceiling
- 3.3
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 98%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dare OgunbowaleRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Hunter LuepkeRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| PPR projection | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Standard projection | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Rank this week | RB77 | RB78 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 0.4 |
| Last season per game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Snap share, last game | — | 18% |
| Trade value | — | — |