Keaton MitchellorTyjae Spears?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Tyjae Spears
Tyjae Spears outscores Keaton Mitchell in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keaton Mitchell comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Tyjae Spears, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyjae Spears projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Tyjae Spears has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (4% more than average to RBs); Keaton Mitchell faces the Kansas City Chiefs (12% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Keaton Mitchell is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.1
- Ceiling
- 9.4
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 71%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 10.1
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 67%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keaton MitchellRB, LAC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| PPR projection | 5.6 | 7.0 |
| Standard projection | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Rank this week | RB40 | RB36 |
| Matchup | at KC | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| Last season per game | 3.9 | 6.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 34% | 54% |
| Trade value | — | — |