Dawson KnoxorGavin Bartholomew?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Gavin Bartholomew
Gavin Bartholomew outscores Dawson Knox in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dawson Knox comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Gavin Bartholomew, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dawson Knox projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Gavin Bartholomew has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (21% fewer than average to TEs); Dawson Knox faces the Minnesota Vikings (35% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Dawson Knox is the pick at 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 2.0
- Ceiling
- 5.7
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 86%
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.2
- Ceiling
- 5.2
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 88%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dawson KnoxTE, BUF, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Gavin BartholomewTE, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| PPR projection | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Standard projection | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Rank this week | TE46 | TE48 |
| Matchup | at MIN | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.1 | 3.0 |
| Last season per game | 5.4 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 12% |
| Trade value | — | — |