Dawson KnoxorIan Thomas?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox outscores Ian Thomas in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ian Thomas comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Dawson Knox, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dawson Knox projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Ian Thomas has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (4% fewer than average to TEs); Dawson Knox faces the Minnesota Vikings (35% fewer than average to TEs). Dawson Knox still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 2.0
- Ceiling
- 5.7
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 86%
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 1.9
- Ceiling
- 5.7
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 86%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dawson KnoxTE, BUF, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Ian ThomasTE, LV, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| PPR projection | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Standard projection | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Rank this week | TE46 | TE47 |
| Matchup | at MIN | at SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.1 | 3.6 |
| Last season per game | 5.4 | 2.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 26% |
| Trade value | — | — |