Dawson KnoxorMitchell Evans?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Mitchell Evans
Mitchell Evans outscores Dawson Knox in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dawson Knox comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Mitchell Evans, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Mitchell Evans projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Mitchell Evans has the better matchup against the Denver Broncos (11% more than average to TEs); Dawson Knox faces the Minnesota Vikings (35% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 2.0
- Ceiling
- 5.7
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 86%
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 2.3
- Ceiling
- 6.3
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 83%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dawson KnoxTE, BUF, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mitchell EvansTE, CAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| PPR projection | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Standard projection | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Rank this week | TE46 | TE44 |
| Matchup | at MIN | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Last season per game | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 32% |
| Trade value | — | — |