DK MetcalforKeenan Allen?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf outscores Keenan Allen in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Keenan Allen comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean DK Metcalf, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Keenan Allen projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); DK Metcalf faces the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs). DK Metcalf still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

DK Metcalf
Floor
3.5
Median
8.0
Ceiling
15.5
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Keenan Allen
Floor
2.5
Median
7.8
Ceiling
17.4
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
36%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDK MetcalfWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ETKeenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.99.3
PPR projection10.711.9
Standard projection7.06.7
Rank this weekWR28WR25
Matchupat CLEat WAS
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.17.5
Last season per game10.58.4
Snap share, last game95%73%
Trade value3—